Max Simulated
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Baseline scenario
Threshold Status
ⓘ
Whether baseline simulations exceed the infrastructure threshold. P(exceed) = fraction of simulations above threshold.
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Avg Simulated
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Median (50th pct)
Vuln. Index
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0–100 combined risk
CC-Adjusted Max
ⓘ
Clausius-Clapeyron adjusted maximum: Max × (1 + 0.07 × ΔT)
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At ΔT slider setting
Monte Carlo — Histogram by Scenario
Distribution of simulated extreme rainfall per climate scenario. Red line = infrastructure threshold.
Empirical CDF — Uncertainty Envelope
P(X ≤ x): cumulative probability. Vertical dashed = threshold.
Infrastructure Threshold Check & Vulnerability
Median and 95th-pct vs. design threshold. Bars exceeding threshold signal capacity risk. Impact badge shows relative exceedance status.
Monthly Seasonal Rainfall Distribution
Average daily rainfall per month. Color-coded against infrastructure threshold to identify safe planning windows.
💡 DPWH: Schedule major construction in LOW months.
Farmers: Avoid planting cycles in HIGH and CRITICAL months.
Threshold: —
Run simulation to populate monthly data.
Monthly Rainfall Profile (avg mm/day)
Return Period vs. Exceedance Probability
A 5-year return period means a 20% annual probability — NOT "won't happen for 5 years." See full breakdown below.
| Return Period (T) | Annual P (1/T) | P(≥1 in T yrs) | P(≥1 in 10 yrs) | Simulated p50 (mm) | Simulated p95 (mm) | vs. Threshold |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Run simulation to populate this table. | ||||||
How to read: A 5-yr return level has a 20% annual exceedance probability. Over 5 years, P(≥1 occurrence) = 67.2%. Over 10 years = 89.3%. This is why critical infrastructure is designed to 25–50 year standards.
Monte Carlo basis: The simulation draws from the fitted Gumbel distribution to produce percentile-based estimates, validated against historical annual maxima (McNemar test p < 0.05 across 3 runs).
Monte Carlo basis: The simulation draws from the fitted Gumbel distribution to produce percentile-based estimates, validated against historical annual maxima (McNemar test p < 0.05 across 3 runs).
Return Period vs. Return Level Curve
Climate Change Sensitivity (Clausius-Clapeyron)
For every 1°C of warming, extreme rainfall intensity increases ~7%. Formula: Adjusted RL = Base RL × (1 + 0.07 × ΔT).
Clausius-Clapeyron relation: Current slider ΔT = +1.5°C → +10.5%.
The 5% / 10% / 20% scenario presets correspond to ≈ 0.7°C / 1.5°C / 2.8°C warming respectively.
The 5% / 10% / 20% scenario presets correspond to ≈ 0.7°C / 1.5°C / 2.8°C warming respectively.
Scenario Comparison (p50 & p95)
Simulated percentiles across all selected climate scenarios.
Temperature Sensitivity Sweep (0–4°C)
How simulated p95 rainfall changes with warming for 3 return periods. Dashed = threshold.
Validation & Back-testing
Gumbel model statistics and observed vs. predicted annual maxima. Demonstrates model accuracy and supports McNemar test reporting.
Model Performance
Run simulation to populate validation statistics.
Observed vs. Predicted Annual Maxima
Gumbel Q-Q Probability Plot
Points near the diagonal = good Gumbel fit. Deviation at tails shows uncertainty for rare events.