📄 Rainfall Simulation & Risk Report
Municipality: — · Structure: — · Return period: — yr · Date:
Prepared for: Local Government Unit (LGU), Camarines Norte · Prepared by: Project VORTEX Research Team
Purpose: To provide a statistically grounded summary of simulated extreme rainfall, validate model performance against historical observations, and deliver evidence-based adaptation recommendations to support LGU infrastructure planning and disaster risk management.
📋 Executive Summary
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Reminder: All values are probabilistic estimates from Gumbel EVT and Monte Carlo simulation — planning guidance, not deterministic forecasts.
📊 Key Indicators
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Table 1 — Simulation Summary (Baseline Scenario)
| Indicator | Value | Notes |
|---|
📈 Observed vs Simulated Rainfall
Figure 1 — Annual Maxima: Observed vs Sim. Mean ± 1 SD
Figure 2 — Gumbel Return Levels by Return Period
Table 2 — Per-Year Observed vs Simulated
| Year | Observed (mm) | Sim. Mean (mm) | ±1 SD | Within ±1 SD? |
|---|
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How to read: Observed values within Sim. Mean ± 1 SD indicate realistic model performance.
⬆ Above or ⬇ Below flags extreme or anomalously dry years for further investigation.
📐 Return Level Analysis
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Table 3 — Gumbel Return Level Estimates
| Return Period (yr) | Estimated Rainfall (mm/day) | Planning Implication |
|---|
🔬 Model Validation Results
Table 4 — Statistical Validation Tests
| Test | Result | Formula | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wilcoxon Signed-Rank | — | W = Σ rank(|dᵢ|) | — |
| McNemar's Test | — | χ² = (b−c)²/(b+c) | — |
| Spearman ρ | — | ρ = 1 − 6Σdᵢ²/n(n²−1) | — |
| Coefficient of Variation | — | CV = (σ/μ) × 100% | — |
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📐 Goodness-of-Fit (Gumbel Distribution)
Table 5 — Goodness-of-Fit Tests
| Test | Result | Formula | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kolmogorov–Smirnov | — | D = sup|F₀(x)−Fₙ(x)| | — |
| Anderson–Darling | — | A² = −n−(1/n)Σ(2i−1)(lnF+ln(1−F')) | — |
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K-S: p > 0.05 → Gumbel fits well.
A-D: A² < 1.0 → excellent; 1–2.5 → acceptable; > 2.5 → poor tail fit.
🛡️ Conclusions & Adaptation Recommendations
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